Finally, an Interesting Major League Soccer Playoffs Race
by Brad Paton10/12/2007 07:10

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It’s been a long-time coming, and finally we have not only a potentially dramatic finale to the MLS regular season, but one that should make ESPN and Soccer United Marketing salivate over the commercial possibilities since it involves the still semi-realistic scenario of putting David Beckham and the LA Galaxy in the MLS Cup Final in front of a national audience and sell-out crowd at RFK stadium. We still have a ways to go to get there, but hopefully below will help whet a few appetites for what lies ahead the next two weeks. Includes a handy-dandy MLS Playoffs Scenario Calculator!


Current Playoffs Picture: (accurate as of October 12, all teams have 2 games remaining to play, except Galaxy with 3 games remaining, record over all of their last 5 games and over the last 5 home and/or away games in parentheses, followed by current Goal Differential and Number of Goals Scored)

7. Kansas City Wizards: 37 points (All TLLWT--Away LTLLL)(-1 GD/42 Goals)
8. Chicago Fire: 36 points (All WTTTT--Home WTTWT--Away TTWLL)(-6 GD/36 Goals)
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9. Colorado Rapids: 32 points (All WLLTL--Home WTWWW--Away LLLTL)(-5 GD/27 Goals)
10. Columbus Crew: 31 points (All LLWLL--Away WLTLT)(-7 GD/33 Goals)
11. Los Angeles Galaxy: 30 points (All WWWWT--Home WLWLL--Away WWWTL)(-10 GD/35 Goals)

Remaining schedules:
Kansas City Wizards:
@ NYRB 10/13 (All LTTTL--Home TTWWW)
@ Dallas 10/20 (All WLLTL-Lost Open Cup Final also--Home LTWLW Lost Open Cup Final also)

Chicago Fire Schedule:
@ DCU 10/13 (All TWTWW-Won 1 and Lost 1 Copa Sudamericana also--Home WWWWW Won 1 Copa Sudamerican also)
LA 10/21 (see top)

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Colorado Rapids Schedule:
@ Chivas USA 10/14 (All WTWTW--Home TWWWT)
RSL 10/20 (All LTWTT--Away TTLLW)

Columbus Crew Schedule:
@ Revs 10/13 (All LWTWL-Won Open Cup Final also--Home WWWWL-Won Open Cup Match also)
@ DCU 10/20 (see above)

Los Angeles Galaxy Schedule:
Toronto 10/13 (All LWLLT--Away LLLLL)
NYRB 10/18 (All LTTTL--Away LTLLL)
@ Fire 10/21 (see top)

My Best-Guess and Possibly Half-Assed Projected Scenarios:
KC will lose again on the road. At best they will draw Dallas in finale to wind up with 38 points. Red Bulls will wind up with 42 points.

The Fire will lose @ DC United.

Rapids will lose @ Chivas, Tie RSL to finish with 33 points.

Crew will lose @ Revs & DCU to finish with 31 points.

LA will beat Toronto to give them 33 points, win or draw vs. New York 34 points, all to play for in finale in Chicago.

If Chicago draws DCU, then the Galaxy will need to win all 3 games to guarantee playoffs.

If KC loses to Red Bulls, the Wizards will need a tie with Dallas to guarantee playoffs.

UPDATE October 13: An anonymous alert reader goofing off when he or she should be working (as noted by their choice of user name from the feedback form, "shouldbworking") pointed out that the original version of the calculator didn't take account of MLS' tie-breaker rules. Originally that was intentional as it required a bit more work than I at first had time to code, but I have since updated this to include the first three tiebreakers: head-to-head record, goal differential, and total goals scored.

With that in mind, here's how the tie-breakers would look (in order of their current position in the standings, except the Fire-Galaxy who are yet to play each other for the last time).

  • If the Wizards are tied with the Fire on the last day of the season, Chicago wins due to their 2 regular season victories over Kansas City.
  • If the Wizards are tied with the Rapids on the last day of the season, Kansas City will win unless the net goal differential for the last 2 games is 5 or more in Colorado's favor due to the 2 regular season ties and KC's 42 goals scored vs. 27 for Colorado.
  • If the Wizards are tied with the Crew on the last day of the season, Kansas City wins due to their 2 regular season victories over Columbus.
  • If the Wizards are tied with the Galaxy on the last day of the season, Los Angeles wins due to their 1 win and a tie in the regular season versus Kansas City.
  • If the Fire are tied with the Rapids on the last day of the season, Colorado wins unless the net goal differential over the last two games is 1 or more in Chicago's favor due to the two regular season ties and the Fire's 36 goals scored vs. 27 for Colorado.
  • If the Wizards are tied with the Crew on the last day of the season, Chicago wins due to their 2 regular season victories over Columbus.
  • If the Rapids are tied with the Crew on the last day of the season, Colorado wins unless the net goal differential is 2 or more in Columbus' favor over the last 2 games due to their 2 regular season ties and Columbus' 33 goals scored vs. 27 for Colorado.
  • If the Rapids are tied with the Galaxy on the last day of the season, Colorado wins due to their 2 regular season victories to 1 loss vs. Los Angeles.
  • If the Fire are tied with the Galaxy on the last day of the season, Los Angeles wins as the only way LA can tie Chicago is if the Galaxy wins all three games and Chicago loses both of theirs, including the season finale to LA giving the Galaxy the head-to-head victory.

Online Handy-Dandy Calculator for Remaining MLS Games with Playoff Implications (feel free to correct my numbers and then hit "Calculate Points"):


October 13, 2007
Kansas City Wizards @ New York Red Bulls
Wizards Score: New York Score:

Chicago Fire @ DC United
Fire Score: DC United Score:

Columbus Crew @ New England Revolution
Crew Score: Revolution Score:

Toronto FC @ Los Angeles Galaxy
Toronto Score: Galaxy Score:


October 14, 2007
Colorado Rapids @ CD Chivas USA
Rapids Score: Chivas USA Score:


October 18, 2007
New York Red Bulls @ Los Angeles Galaxy
New York Score: Galaxy Score:


October 20, 2007
Kansas City @ FC Dallas
Wizards Score: Dallas Score:

Real Salt Lake @ Colorado Rapids
RSL Score: Rapids Score:

Columbus Crew @ DC United
Crew Score: DC United Score:


October 21, 2007
Los Angeles Galaxy @ Chicago Fire
Galaxy Score: Chicago Score:



Disclaimer: this is my first bit of original Javascript programming, so please let me know if you experience any bugs/problems with it and I'll see what I can do. Generally I satisfy my soccer geek-dom with PHP and MySQL programming, but this seemed more appropriate here so I thought I'd share. Think I've got it all wrong or just have a comment or suggestion? Let me know here and I'll make any modifications/corrections necessary, giving credit where requested.


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