The first cut is the hardest

In the Made–for–TV movie version of “The Charlie Davies Story” that’s surely in pre–production on the ABC networks as we speak, May 11, 2010, will be marked as the real beginning of Davies’ return to scaling the soccer heights that he hinted at being capable of last summer in South Africa, a journey sure to end in World Cup glory in Brazil (assuming they figure out how to build a few stadia down there between now and then). For now, the ABC/ESPN producers will have to find some other heart–warming story to give the soft focus featur–y approach so beloved of American big–time sports broadcasts (bleah!).

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For a pragmatic coach like the US Men’s National Team’s Bob Bradley however, finding out that Davies’ French club team, Sochaux, couldn’t see to giving him the full medical release necessary to attend the pre-tournament training camp set to convene simply meant that Bradley needed to call up everybody even marginally capable of filling a roster spot on the US forward line, with the only exceptions seemingly the out of form twin towers of Kenny Cooper and Conor Casey. I’m not sure how else Robbie Findley makes this list. And only the miracle that was 3 goals for Eddie Johnson in the Greek playoffs for a Champions League spot helped him escape the frozen tundra wasteland of strikers who inexplicably can’t seem to score. (Charlie Davies and France's Sochaux
(last updated May 25))

All that being said, how about we start with a quick position-by-position look through the 30 men who safely cleared the first hurdle for a participant’s ticket to Africa? (US World Cup 2010 Roster Speculation
(last updated June 2))

Goalkeepers

No surprises here. There just isn’t any reason to take a fourth into the training camp as the position is totally stable, and without any shakiness in form or injury problems that might otherwise require someone to get a provisional look-see.

Defenders

Though some would be sad not to see Edgar Castillo on this list, the fact is that without him having received a call-up in an earlier qualifier or friendly, there was little chance that Coach Bradley would take a flyer on him as a left-sided option, in direct contrast to Jermaine Jones, whom if even remotely healthy would definitely have received an invite as a central midfielder despite playing exactly zero previous matches for the US. (Edgar Castillo and US Men's Eligibility
(last updated July 8)) (Jermaine Jones and the US Men's National Team
(last updated February 19))

Midfielders

The only real drama here isn’t much of one given the career body of work with the national team for DaMarcus Beasley. Despite all of that history though, on any true soccer power with even a modicum of top-level depth (see England), Beasley would normally absolutely be on the knife’s edge of being cut due to his lack of playing time at Glasgow Rangers, plus his utter lack of form with the USMNT, including a disastrous giveaway vs. Brazil that led directly to a breakaway goal in the group stage of last Summer’s Confederations Cup. Beasley ultimately only gets the call due to the relative lack of strength on the left side of midfield compared to the center and right sides. (US vs. Brazil (Confed Cup, June 18, 2009)
(last updated June 28))

If nothing else, that last reality alone should be the last wake-up call one Freddy Adu should need to receive that if he doesn’t get his head straight around the need to do whatever is necessary to get a roster spot on the senior national team, even if it’s play as a left wing midfielder instead of in his preferred position as a withdrawn second forward in the hole behind the front striker, he’s going to become someone who not only won’t play in the 4 World Cups he was originally projected to as a 14-year-old professional, but might miss out entirely considering the fact that he realistically only has two more shots left in him after this year’s miss (unless he becomes the most ridiculous late-bloomer ever). (Freddy Adu and Greece's Aris
(last updated February 23))

Forwards

When it seemed at least feasible that sentimental favorite Charlie Davies would be able to miraculously answer the bell, initial reports indicated that Coach Bob Bradley might only call 27 or 28 players for the preliminary roster receiving invites to the pre-tournament training camp. However, with two of the nominal midfielders more than capable of partnering sure-shot Jozy Altidore on the forward line (Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey), I’m guessing that 6 true forwards is an indication of exactly how wide open the competition is for the last 1 or 2 spots up top. It’s entirely conceivable that Bradley will only take 3 forwards if nobody forces him to invite 4. (Charlie Davies Car Accident and Recovery
(last updated May 25))

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So who’s on the bubble, knowing that 7 have to be cut? Obviously the 3 goalkeepers are a lock, and conventional wisdom dictates at most 4 forwards, with the possiblity of 3 given what was said above about Donovan and Dempsey, it seems safe to think that 2 or 3 of the forwards will remain behind, plus 2 or 3 defenders, and presumably the same setup in the midfield depending on who forces Bradley’s hand.

That being said, here’s who I think are truly on the bubble:

• Clarence Goodson
• Chad Marshall
• Heath Pearce
• Alejandro Bedoya
• Robbie Rogers
• Robbie Findley
• Edson Buddle
• Herculez Gomez

And here’s the next crop that I’d say the bias would general be towards including in the absence of compelling reasons otherwise given historical performances (plus those whom Bradley appears to have a predilection for despite inconsistent play when given the chance):

• Jonathan Bornstein
• DaMarcus Beasley
• Sacha Kljestan
• Eddie Johnson

Everybody else I’d consider as close to a lock as you can get, with the acknowledged caveat that we don’t know how far along some truly are in their injury recoveries (Oguchi Onyewu, Stuart Holden, Brian Ching, Ricardo Clark).

Not that I’m a gambling man, but were I, I’d bet that the following get disappointing news in the next couple weeks:

• Clarence Goodson: at this stage Chad Marshall is just a more a proven and consistent player.
• Alejandro Bedoya: novelty/curiosity call–ups only get one so far without something further getting your attention.
• Robbie Rogers: just too inconsistent, though still with plenty of potential for the next cycle should he settle down.
• Robbie Findley: see Rogers, Robbie.
• Herculez Gomez: loses in the chemistry with Donovan department to Edson Buddle that makes all the difference in the world given that this team is clearly Landon’s, though if Gomez and Donovan were paying attention to each other during Gomez’s previous stint with the Galaxy and can re-connect in camp and one of the friendlies scheduled at the end of the month, he could still pull this one out.
• Sacha Kljestan: Ricardo Clark’s recovery and Kljestan’s inconsistency combined with a lack of a spark out of the MLS gate with Chivas USA makes him the odd man out, despite the history with Bradley that’s generally been a sure route to getting the benefit of the doubt come selection time.

That leaves me 1 shy of the 7 Bradley needs to cut, and I really can’t make up my prejudiced mind as to whether that last player cut would be Bornstein or Pearce. As much as I think Beasley’s play of late leaves much, far too much, to be desired, I still think the numbers and players available today dictate that Bradley cuts 2 defenders, with the second being the winner of the grudge match between this pair of second–string, attack–minded left back wannabes, neither one of which is even likely a starter if chosen despite the lack of true left–sided alternatives.

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As far as an early guess at who will be taking the field vs. England next month, right now I’m thinking Stuart Holden if healthy will get a start on the right with Donovan again on the left, with Dempsey partnering Altidore up top. Michael Bradley anchors the middle of midfield, along–side either Maurice Edu or Ricardo Clark (I’d vote for Edu, just so we don’t have 2 likely recipients of cards in the same area of the field).

Not a particularly dangerous looking attack, but set pieces with the central back pairing of Onyewu and Carlos Bocanegra coming forward could certainly present problems for anybody we’re playing, at least in the first round. As far as their wing back counterparts, I still think Cherundolo gets the call on the right, with Jonathan Spector occupying the same left side he plays for club team West Ham United.

That I think puts pretty close to the best 11 players currently available on the field, but given Holden’s lack of playing time after recovering from the broken leg he suffered at the hands of the Netherland’s Nigel de Jong back in March, I could also see an argument for Donovan on the right and José Torres on the left, assuming of course Bradley finally thinks he can hold his own at the international level. Failing that, and if Ching or one of the other forwards just seems on fire, then Dempsey goes back to his usual spot at right midfield, with Donovan again attacking from the left. (US vs. England (June 12, 2010-World Cup Group C)
(last updated June 3))

Either way, I don’t expect too much experimentation in the last two friendlies before boarding the planes for South Africa so we should know which way the argument is leaning come May 25 in Connecticut vs. the Czechs. (US MNT vs. Czech Republic (May 25, 2010 Friendly)
(last updated June 2))

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